Injury risksToday, Baseball Prospectus had a couple of (subscription only) articles revolving around the Nationals. The interesting one was Will Carroll's Team Health Report. Will focuses on trying to use metrics with a heavy statistical bent to predict injuries. The high-risk players he identifies are:
- Nick Johnson. No surprise.
- Tony Armas. No surprise here, either.
- Alex Escobar, which isn't much of a surprise, considering that it wasn't too long ago he had knee surgery for a torn ACL. He's not going to get much playing time anyway, but Will seems to think he's not going to recover fully, and he's probably right.
- Christian Guzman. This one surprised me. I didn't realize he has had back problems, as well as an assortment of other leg and shoulder injuries. Will put it quite well: "Seventeen million bucks for this? Ugh."
Medium risk players are:
- Schneider, who Carroll thinks is low risk... for a catcher.
- Vidro. I was pleased to see he wasn't in the highest risk group.
- Hernandez, though Carroll believes his metrics are wrong for Hernandez, and that he's a low risk..
- Loaiza... Carroll doesn't mention any of the signs of a possible run-in with TJ surgery that I was fretting about earlier.
- Ohka. Not surprising.
- Day. Not surprising.